Nasty GOP FL Campaign A Dead Heat

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:20:12 AM EST
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John McCain and Mitt Romney have been exchanging nasty personal attacks in a divisive Floirda campaign that will end Rudy Giuliani's campaign. The polls have Romney and McCain in a dead heat.

The endorsement of the Republican Governor of Florida Charlie Crist has seemingly given McCain a slight boost but it is hard to say how much. Florida has early voting and reportedly some 1 million early votes, about half of the expected total, have been cast already.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is trying to get some publicity for her expected big win in the Florida Dem beauty contest. It will be interesting to watch how many Democrats will vote. It is hard to ignore more than a half million voters. Indeed, the Florida Dem primary is likely to have the largest amount of voters of any primary so far.

The polls close at 8 EST.

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Nasty GOP FL Campaign A Dead Heat | 39 comments (39 topical)

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Recount, please. (5.00 / 2) (#33)
by Quaker in a Basement on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:56:26 PM EST

McCain and Romeny? Too close to call!! We need the Florida courts to settle this one. Please.

Since this is, IIRC, a winner-take-all (5.00 / 1) (#37)
by scribe on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:32:07 PM EST

primary, and since Rudy Cue Ball declared yesterday that the winner in Fla. will win the Repug nomination, I'd suggest a recount will be necessary.

And that the Courts will have to get involved. Maybe even the Supreme Court, to examine that pesky Bush v. Gore precedent.


: .5 percent (5.00 / 1) (#38)
by Quaker in a Basement on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:44:24 PM EST

One-half of one percent is the threshold--it's the law!!

The SUSA blog (none / 0) (#1)
by andgarden on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:36:00 AM EST

says:

At this hour, results from the 12 polling firms working tomorrow's Florida Republican Primary can be distributed along a bell-curve this way:
Romney +12
Romney +7
Romney +4
Tied
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +1
McCain +2
McCain +3
McCain +3
McCain +4
The mode is McCain +1.
The median is McCain +1.
The mean is is Romney +0.6.

And their last poll has McCain up a fraction of a point. There is an effective tie.

The MOE is, as always, high for internals, but it looks like hispanics switched to Romney, and then started switching back.

I don't think the exit polls will be able to call this one, and we'll be waiting until the last vote is counted.

To be fair, (none / 0) (#2)
by dk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:37:52 AM EST

can the FL Dem primary really be called just a beauty contest? I mean, it is still quite possible that the delgated will end up being seated at the convention, right?

IT will be seated (none / 0) (#4)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:42:04 AM EST

but only after the nomination is decided.

That is why the silly hysterics from Josh Marshall and the other Big Media bloggers was so ridiculous.


Right, (none / 0) (#6)
by dk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:50:10 AM EST

so that is why I think calling it a beauty contest isn't quite right. Of course, Obama and the anti-Hillary media will try to call it that to minimize it, and I suppose they have every right to make that argument (this is politics after all); but, if there is a high probability that delegates will be added to the total (even if that doesn't happen until later), then it's an election like all the others.


Re: (none / 0) (#7)
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:09:49 AM EST

I've come around to Jerome's position on this. I find it hard to imagine that the Democrats will allow a nominee to be selected without taking into account the views of the 4th largest state in the nation, particularly given the importance of that state for the GE.

Procedurally, there's going to be a vote on the issue of MI and FL by the credentials committee at the convention in Denver, followed by a vote of all the assembled delegates on whether to accept the recommendation of the credentials committee. So it's not a situation where the nominee will be selected and then, out of politeness, he or she will agree to recognize MI and FL at that point. It's going to be a threshold issue.


I disagree (none / 0) (#8)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:12:18 AM EST

In order to seat the delegates, the delegate count leader will have to be Hillary Clinton.

EVEN IF she is not over the threshold, there will be no denying her the nomination. So the nomination WILL have been decided.

If Obama leads in delegates, he will be the nominee, and the seating of the delegation will occur once that is decided.


Re: (none / 0) (#11)
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:29:24 AM EST

Well, that's not the sequence provided for in the convention rules.


It is the reality imo (none / 0) (#12)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:32:40 AM EST

Re: (none / 0) (#16)
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:43:57 AM EST

Part of it depends on whether Edwards has released his delegates by then.

I also wonder if there's any talk of MI or FL scheduling a caucus within the next couple months so they can get around this whole thing.

The scenario where Hillary leapfrogs Obama by seating MI and FL is pretty intolerable. But the scenario where Obama wins only because MI and FL don't count is also pretty intolerable, frankly. We sure could have made this a lot simpler if the penalty had only been half the delegates (and, who knows, that might be what the credentials committee recommends).


And it will not happen (none / 0) (#17)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:47:28 AM EST

This whole nonsense is about getting some coverage TONIGHT.


Re: (none / 0) (#18)
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:53:13 AM EST

The media seems to be completely in the tank with the Obama spin on this one, perhaps not surprisingly.

Why would political observers not care about the preference of the 4th largest state, just because they may not get any delegates? I mean, the level of attention devoted to Iowa surely isn't because they get a zillion delegates. It's because we want to know what their preference is.


I agree, (none / 0) (#19)
by dk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:59:26 AM EST

it's very odd. It's almost like there is a media blackout if you look at the MSM. I mean, talk all you want about how, according to the DNC, the delegates don't matter, but shouldn't it be considered "news" when hundreds of thousands of people in one of the nation's most populous states goes out to vote?


I'm waiting for turnout (none / 0) (#21)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:02:40 AM EST

to see how much focus I put on it.


CNN has a story up (none / 0) (#22)
by dk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:08:02 AM EST

(mostly about the Republican side) saying that nearly 400,000 Democrats already cast ballots in Florida before today. Not sure how that compares to previous elections.


: Previous elections (none / 0) (#23)
by Big Tent Democrat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:10:29 AM EST

Good point, need to look that up.

Steve M (none / 0) (#35)
by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:24:00 PM EST

elections cost a lot of money. That is what it'll boil down to--and the dems do not control Florida's government, so yet another hurdle. Where will folks vote? Who will pay poll workers? Who will print ballots? Who will pay for machines? Etc.


It seems to me (none / 0) (#13)
by dk on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:34:34 AM EST

that if the FL delegate count would make the difference between a Clinton or an Obama nomination, then it is going to get very, very ugly in Denver before this is over. I am sure that the DNC is keeping it's fingers crossed that it doesn't come to this.


: Just remember this (none / 0) (#20)
by scribe on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:02:25 AM EST

the Florida Delegation does not have a hotel assignment in Denver for the convention.
The DNC meant it when they stripped Florida of their delegates because Florida bumped up the primary, defying the DNC rule. And that, sadly, was a function of the Republicans (who dominate the Fla. legislature and whose governor last year was ... Jebbie Bush) monkeying around with the Florida calendar.

No's #2 and #3? (none / 0) (#25)
by horseloverfat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:36:56 AM EST

Whoever has the most pledged delegates is the nominee.

If #3 throws his delegates to #2, giving #2 the nomination, supporters of #1 will be really PO'ed.

Party can't afford that, JMHO.


The party IMO made a big mistake (none / 0) (#3)
by Saul on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:38:44 AM EST

by not allowing the delegates of Florida not to be seated. You got a bunch of angry Democrats now wanting to sue the party. I would be curious to find out how this decision will affect voter turnout now and in the general election.

meh (none / 0) (#5)
by Nasarius on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 08:49:26 AM EST

It is entirely the fault of the Florida legislature for breaking the rules, then failing to reschedule the primary when the DNC told them to. Floridians can thank their local state reps for this fiasco.


: Republicans (none / 0) (#26)
by horseloverfat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:40:40 AM EST

Republicans control the Florida legislature, right?

If you were a FL Democrat (none / 0) (#9)
by magster on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:18:40 AM EST

would you vote GOP just to get even with the DNC?

I don't know how big a deal this will ultimately be.


Speaking as someone who voted today (5.00 / 2) (#15)
by Molly Bloom on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:41:09 AM EST

NO!


How is the turnout? (none / 0) (#24)
by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:30:28 AM EST

I voted at 7:30 (none / 0) (#27)
by Molly Bloom on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:02:50 AM EST

The turnout was light in my precinct (which is heavily GOP). But early voting has been going on for awhile. I just never could make up my mind until I got in the booth.


Last sentence kind of surprises me, (none / 0) (#28)
by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:04:12 AM EST

but that seems to be a mini-trend.


I see fault and promise in all the candidates (none / 0) (#31)
by Molly Bloom on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:45:00 AM EST

I don't want a brokered convention. That would not be good.

Better to wrap this up sooner rather than later.

I won't have a problem voting for the Democrat over the Republican.


: You are a well-informed voter. (none / 0) (#32)
by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:46:54 AM EST

"Beauty contest"? When was the last (none / 0) (#10)
by oculus on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:23:20 AM EST

there was a beauty contest featuring females AND males?

: beauty contest (none / 0) (#36)
by Kathy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:25:58 PM EST

meant to reinforce the notion that Hillary has been the only one "running" in Florida, which is bullsh*t, but that seems to be the Obama spin.
"Lookit that silly girl! Wasting her time down there when everyone knows it doesn't matter."

How (none / 0) (#14)
by Jgarza on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:34:50 AM EST

will their party, and indeed the conservative movement ever recover?

I think some might see McCain as Anti Mormaon, and if Romney looses, the Mormons will never vote republican again.

It is tearing republicans apart.

beauty contest (none / 0) (#29)
by Klio on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:32:13 AM EST

I know we've gone 'round and 'round on this but I do wish we could find some other way of describing Florida. The results are neither meaningless nor inconsequential. Huge numbers of people are voting their preference today, and it's unfair to say they're doing so based on totally superficial criteria [which is what a "beauty contest" implies].

Surely we can come up with a more apt term?

You go first :-)

Jeb Bush (none / 0) (#30)
by horseloverfat on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 11:35:59 AM EST

There is a piece at TNR describing this as a fight between Jeb Bush's Presidential ambitions and Crisp's. Jeb and his machine are backing Romney, the current Gov is for ABR - AnyoneButRomney.

: Re: (none / 0) (#34)
by Steve M on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:12:28 PM EST

Surely Crist has no chance at national office as a Republican.

Looks Like Things Have Gotten Worse (none / 0) (#40)
by MO Blue on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 04:49:59 PM EST

Romney Plays The "McCain's Unstable" Card MyDD
As part of Mitt Romney's "Straight Talk Detour" McCain oppo series of press releases, this one dated January 5th is freakin classic.
...
The release is titled "THE MCCAIN WAY: ATTACK REPUBLICANS" and it goes on to detail instances when McCain has attacked Republicans. But a closer look reveals a more insidious campaign to spread the familiar meme that McCain is on the edge and is unstable.