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Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Three

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:02:25 PM EST
Tags: Pennsylvania '08, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama (all tags)
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Time for a third results live blog. It's below the fold and will start momentarily.

< Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Two | Hillary's Victory Speech in Philadelphia >

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    Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Three | 131 comments (131 topical)

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    If he out spends McCain (5.00 / 1) (#1)
    by Salo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:04:32 PM EST
    by 20x would he win Penn?

    LOL! (none / 0) (#3)
    by madamab on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:05:15 PM EST


    Parent
    Obama's winning speech... (5.00 / 1) (#97)
    by Leisa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:11:47 PM EST
    I could not listen after 5 minutes...  sorry, it seemed canned and resentful.  His tone has an edge to it that makes me feel uncomfortable... NOW is our turn... where has he said that before?

    We will change this country?  EEK!  

    Let's change our policies, our country and the constitution that governs it is the best.I do NOT want to change that!  

    I want our country to become more collaborative, within boundaries and conditions that assure world peace.   I want to raise up the underprivileged not only in our country, but around the globe.  Hillary will address the needs to achieve world peace because she knows that we need to take care of our children first.  She is the one that will get us there.

    Parent

    Here's the wild card (5.00 / 1) (#2)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:04:35 PM EST
    Looking at CNN, it seems like Montgomery County hasn't reported anything. That's very concerning, and I'm going to look into it.

    Starting to come in (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:05:45 PM EST
    Hillary has a 10 point lead with about 13% counted. Good start.

    Parent
    BTD....is he still Darling? (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:27 PM EST
    After what I hear from the right, he is not a darling anymore.  

    Not sounding so hot to the pundits tonight. (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:10:37 PM EST


    Parent
    GROUP HUG FOR HILLARY!!!!! (5.00 / 3) (#15)
    by Angel on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:11:18 PM EST
    Yes, she can!  Yes, she will!

    Posted this again because I thought it was worth it!

    Watching Mayor Nutter on C-span, (5.00 / 2) (#16)
    by Anne on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:11:20 PM EST
    there's a woman standing behind him wearing red boxing gloves - how perfect is tht?

    Discounting states that Dems won't win in November (5.00 / 1) (#18)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:12:24 PM EST
    If you take away the wins of Obama in states such as Utahn S.C. MS and such. I am seriously worried that we could have a McCain presidency come November. I don't believe Obama can carry Oh, PA or Fl against McCain.

    Up by 100,000 (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by lisadawn82 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:08 PM EST
    Senator Clinton is up by 100,000 votes with 56% of the results.  If the final result percentage doesn't change she should be up by about 185,000 votes or so by the end of the evening. After Philly is done reporting hopefully the percentages will change in Senator Clinton's favor and the popular vote tally will be larger than I've already stated.  

    185,000? That's it? (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by sweetthings on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:23:01 PM EST
    Just a few weeks ago BTD was talking about 450,000 gain from PA.

    Let's hope the spread increases. I think she'll need more than 185,000.

    Parent

    If she wins by 15% (4.50 / 2) (#33)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:24:15 PM EST
    It won't matter if she gain 1 vote! That would really cause a big shift in perception. Just one man's opinion.

    Parent
    Sorry (none / 0) (#58)
    by lisadawn82 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:45:14 PM EST
    It was just a SWAG (Scientific Wild A** Guess).

    Parent
    At midnight, with 95% reporting she is up by (none / 0) (#131)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:59:58 PM EST
     208,811 votes..yeahhhhhh...heh.

    Parent
    Those % in are precincts - not total vote (5.00 / 2) (#50)
    by Makarov on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:37:01 PM EST
    With Philly and Pittsburgh in, it looks like the total number of Dem votes statewide to be more like 1.7 or 1.8M, than the 2M hoped for.

    The big question is what's up with Chester and Montco right now - no results from one and only one dump from the other.

    Parent

    Looking at these numbers (5.00 / 1) (#21)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:21 PM EST
    my prediction of a Hillary delegate bumper crop may turn out right.

    Obama does not have very widespread support. . .

    Rendell says Clinton took Lackawanna Co. (5.00 / 1) (#22)
    by Anne on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:30 PM EST
    with 70-some% of the vote.

    "Won't Back Down!!!"

    Love seeing all 3 Clintons together!! (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Redstar on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:14:36 PM EST


    looking good, ok, another Renaissance song (5.00 / 1) (#25)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:16:15 PM EST
    or two in recognition of the lead singer, Annie Haslam, living in Bucks County, PA. I hope she voted for Clinton today. Looking at the Bucks County results, I think she did. Songs to listen too:

    Northern Lights and
    Ashes are Burning for some of that incredible vocal range.

    I think "Carpet of the Sun" (none / 0) (#64)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:49:08 PM EST
    fits her outlook more..Here is the link..

    I just love Renaissance. Have them on vinyl somewhere..LOL

    Parent

    agree, that's why CotS (none / 0) (#76)
    by DandyTIger on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:56:54 PM EST
    was my first link in the previous thread. Just love them too. And yep, mine are all o vinyl as well. Might try to rip them anyway, we'll see.

    Parent
    They are also available (none / 0) (#130)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:56:34 PM EST
    on Rhapsody. I have them on CD as well, downloaded from there.

    Parent
    They're going bat sh-t in Philly (5.00 / 1) (#26)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:17:12 PM EST
    Hill, Chelsea and the Big Dawg are on stage, and the Flyers just won in OT!

    I love Rendell BTW.

    Victory becomes her (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:17:38 PM EST


    Has Obama (5.00 / 1) (#28)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:20:57 PM EST
    congratulated HRC on her win tonight? Just asking...

    So, what's the game plan tomorrow? (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by Kathy on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:20 PM EST
    You know our girl will hit the ground running.  My cat just gave her some more money (Paws Up for Hillary!) and I'll call again for the phone banking, but--wow--she's really in the race.  (Hillary, not my cat)

    It's really humbling (5.00 / 1) (#36)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:25 PM EST
    to listen to her speeches when she wins. She mentioned teachers grading papers, the military,
    the night shift worker, us, the people. Nice...
    Heck ya.... (5.00 / 1) (#38)
    by Stellaaa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:27:39 PM EST
    I was at the SF fundraiser that someone gave her that picture.  So much for SF stereotypes.  

    Big popular vote win (5.00 / 1) (#39)
    by CoralGables on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:27:52 PM EST
    Looks like turnout will be about 52-53% which is huge by PA standards probably giving Clinton a 180,000 to 200,000 vote win margin by nights end.

    It would be (5.00 / 1) (#127)
    by facta non verba on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:37:20 PM EST
    the second highest turnout to date. New Hampshire was 52.5% so there's a chance that it may exceed. Remarkable and I think another argument for her in staying in the race. Energizing more voters.

    Parent
    Just made a small donation too,,,, have to keep (5.00 / 1) (#40)
    by athyrio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:28:00 PM EST
    her going....please anyone that can afford it, give her a donation...Thank you...

    before I go to bed, I will. To your health. (none / 0) (#44)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:30:32 PM EST


    Parent
    Absolutely! (none / 0) (#84)
    by AmyinSC on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:00:42 PM EST
    I made one while she was speaking - as soon as she said to go to her site and lend support, I was there!!  (OK - I planned on it, anyway - but she was AWESOME tonight!!!)

    Best to you, too, as you deal with your health issues...

    Parent

    Great comment from Hill (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by pie on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:29:57 PM EST
    about Philadelphia where men gathered to form a more perfect union that didn't include Seantor Obama or me or some of you (paraphrase).

    i know that was beautiful (5.00 / 3) (#48)
    by proudliberaldem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:19 PM EST
    as was the part about her taking for granted that women could vote, and her daughter taking for granted that kids of all races should go to school together, and the next generation will take for granted that a woman or an african american can be president. i am crying.

    Parent
    Those Bucks County numbers (5.00 / 2) (#51)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:37:13 PM EST
    are embarrassing to Patrick Murphy. His district is mostly contiguous with the county.

    Nutter did Hillary well: the Philly margin for Obama wasn't what he needed.

    Watching John King Run Down the Counties (5.00 / 2) (#94)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:10:17 PM EST
    How can this not send a shiver down every SD's spine?  

    His large win in (5.00 / 1) (#96)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:10:48 PM EST
    Philly with AA voters should be a dangerous signal for supers. Obama cannot win the white, working class vote. He can't win women. And she cut into his base a little. I hope they are watching.

    Olberman (5.00 / 1) (#98)
    by wasabi on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:12:19 PM EST
    Is shameless.  Ya got that right BTD.

    His comments were (5.00 / 1) (#99)
    by wasabi on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:14:18 PM EST
    That doesn't Clinton know that at some point she needs to stop destroying the party?  Obama would never say anything negative about Clinton that could be damaging.  No, never ever.  He is pure.  THE ONE.  

    Ewwwwwww.

    Parent

    It's Amazing To Me (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:15:12 PM EST
    How MSNBC erases two states from the vote totals.  Amazing, really.

    Olbermann cries about the roolz (5.00 / 1) (#102)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:15:30 PM EST
    this is almost entertaining.

    Dear God... (5.00 / 1) (#103)
    by gmo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:16:19 PM EST
    ...watching Keith, Brian & Tim on MSNBC -- seriously, it looks like keith & brian are on the verge of tears!

    OMG, Bush v. Gore (5.00 / 1) (#104)
    by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:16:50 PM EST
    Is KO kidding me?

    Apparently In Keith's World (5.00 / 1) (#123)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:31:58 PM EST
    Bush argued that all votes should be counted and not that the rules permitted them not to be.

    Parent
    I'll Give Gergen Some Credit (5.00 / 1) (#108)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:20:17 PM EST
    His analysis has changed as the vote spread has changed.  Hmm, would that be because he's paying attention to what the results actually are.

    Good point. (5.00 / 1) (#109)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:22:55 PM EST


    Parent
    BTW (5.00 / 2) (#111)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:23:23 PM EST
    My final prediction was 55/45 this morning. Do I get a cookie?

    A banana from Kathy. (5.00 / 2) (#113)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26:09 PM EST


    Parent
    heh (5.00 / 1) (#116)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:28:27 PM EST


    Parent
    Tweety looked very grim (5.00 / 1) (#112)
    by kmblue on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:24:35 PM EST
    when they tossed to Clinton's speech
    but he was the first to praise it.  Go figure.

    When did Rachel Maddow (5.00 / 1) (#115)
    by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:28:07 PM EST
    become such an obvious Obama lover?

    Pat Buchanan, (5.00 / 1) (#117)
    by vicndabx on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:29:07 PM EST
    I'm sorry but ya gotta love these republican commentators.

    Wow (5.00 / 1) (#120)
    by Steve M on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:57 PM EST
    200,000 votes is a lot.

    I caught some of Obama's nasty, negative speech.  I changed the channel back to hockey.  Funny way to act for a guy who supposedly has this whole thing locked up thanks to "delegate math."

    I'm just glad that (5.00 / 1) (#124)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:32:27 PM EST
    there will be no more caucuses from here on out.

    Disappointed at NYTimes editorial (5.00 / 1) (#126)
    by gmo on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:36:48 PM EST
    How can their assessment of "negativity" be so blindly one-sided?

    ny times editorial (4.00 / 1) (#73)
    by disappointed on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:56:09 PM EST
    The New York Times just rained on her parade. In their editorial for tomorrow,they have called her largely responsible for the negative campaign. They have written she blew her 20 % lead in Pa.  because of her negativity.  Additionally, they write Obama outspent her 2 to 1--not 3 to 1 as he did.  It sounds as if they'd like to pull their endorsement.  Whenever she does well, it seems the rug is tugged to try to pull it out from under her. Obama's people, and of course Olberman, are already handing around the editorial.

    That editorial... (5.00 / 2) (#89)
    by ineedalife on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:02:28 PM EST
    was written before any votes were counted. It is clearly a hatchet job. It doesn't even address that his horrible debate performance could have been the cause of his loss. And it doesn't address his negativity.

    Parent
    Let's not give the NY Times to much credit. (5.00 / 1) (#93)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:08:16 PM EST
    Remember is was the Times that gave the Whitewater cranks their "street creds". They, the Times, didn't do Gore any favors either.

    Parent
    par for the course (none / 0) (#86)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:00:57 PM EST
    but the people know the media is bs.  and it's their vote that counts.  OH, TX and PA have ignored the bs.

    Parent
    the times (none / 0) (#88)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:02:25 PM EST
    has received massive ad revenue and comment feedback through kos, facebook, and obama group spam.  They've never had so much traffic or had it be so skewed--I really think the paper is being heavily encouraged by their short-term profits to go negative on hillary (the bloggers/election reporters have for a while imho).

    It's no surprise to me when they led the mississippi primary with an op-ed on the 3-am ad having KKK similarities.

    Parent

    The NYTimes (none / 0) (#90)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:04:02 PM EST
    went down the drain a while ago; I think sth. happened over there after their endorsement. They've become a joke. They really sound sour.

    It's amazing how calling on Obama's disdainful remarks, lies (about oil money for ex), or his  questionable associations is negative but bombarding HRC with the Bosnia flap for weeks and weeks in okay.  

    It's sad to see the NYT becoming so un-professional.

    My take:  bye bye Times.

    Parent

    NY Times (none / 0) (#106)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:18:59 PM EST
    After the Judith Miller fiasco and Iraq propaganda and then the holding back on the wiretapping until the election was over, Why in the hell should anyone care what they say?

    Parent
    Editorials (none / 0) (#105)
    by BrandingIron on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:16:55 PM EST
    by individuals aren't the same as the Editorial Endorsement of a Candidate.  So do you have a link to this editorial?

    Parent
    here, it's from the editor (none / 0) (#125)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:34:55 PM EST
    Not an op-ed.

    Here's the link

    Comments are badly skewed too, must have hit kos/facebook/etc.

    Reminds me of when they interfered on the day of the mississippi primary.
    Link here for the KKK-3am comparison

    Parent

    CNN (none / 0) (#4)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:05:25 PM EST
    Gergen and Borger come right out and say that SDs picking Hillary is stealing the nomination from Obama.

    She also said 80% of Yahoo searches (none / 0) (#8)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:08:41 PM EST
    about Obama are negative, Wright and bitter, and these were started by the Clinton campaign. I wasn't aware Hillary picked his church, made his preacher say that stuff and then opened Obama's mouth for him in San Francisco.

    Parent
    Letting the Republican Gerger decide (none / 0) (#12)
    by MarkL on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:42 PM EST
    how Democrats choose their nominee would be the real crime.

    Parent
    My, My (none / 0) (#19)
    by Spike on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:13:19 PM EST
    Make I remind you that Mr. Gergen served in Pres. Clinton's administration. What are you inferring?

    Parent
    Gergen loves the sound of his voice... (none / 0) (#24)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:15:49 PM EST
    doesn't matter much what he says...the sound is the point.

    Parent
    Gergen (none / 0) (#85)
    by cal1942 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:00:44 PM EST
    He's also a Republican and he's now in party warrior mode.  In reality always has been always will be.

    He'll say anything in a public forum to discredit Clinton in any way he can.  The GOP wants to run against Obama.

    His statement on this matter is ludicrous.

    Parent

    going there so you don't have to... (none / 0) (#6)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:07:23 PM EST
    My favorite comment from Kos tonight...

    Results Thread #7
    by kos
    Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 06:26:23 PM PDT
    How desperate is the Clinton campaign for cash? Terry McAuliffe just plugged HillaryClinton.com.
    Go there, and it forwards straight to a fundraising page. Of course for the campaign that thinks it's "more electable", being broke doesn't look so hot.
    21% precincts reporting.
            Vote%  Dels
    Clinton  54     28
    Obama    46     19
    Update: We still don't know how big the margin will be, so we can't yet analyze pollster performance. But boy does PPP have egg on its face!

    Think he's happy?

    Candidate by the rich, for the rich (none / 0) (#66)
    by Lysis on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:50:20 PM EST
    Doesn't understand how unseemly the money race seems to the working class in the first place, and how taunting like that reveals his elitism.

    Parent
    at this stage... (5.00 / 2) (#80)
    by white n az on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:59:14 PM EST
    he thinks the money advantage is the reason Obama should win. HuffPo had a similar posting on FP. They really aren't at all concerned with details or the unseemliness, only in the outcome which has to be their guy. So they lick their wounds and rejoice that she doesn't have the money.

    I wonder why it never occurs to them that all the money in the world doesn't help sell their guy to middle America.

    My amusement was more from the blame he heaped on PPP's poll for making him a fool in his own predictions, never once considering that Hillary was gonna beat Obama by 10%

    I have to admire Kos for putting partisanship ahead of his own credibility...at least he's consistent.

    Parent

    I just checked the county map on CNN (none / 0) (#7)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:08:33 PM EST
    and they have Hillary taking all but five counties. And in only two, Dauphin and Philadelphia, does he have more than a ten percent lead. York Co. is listed as his but is split 50/50, with Obama ahead by 19 votes. It looks like a landslide from the county votes, anyway.

    I am thrilled she hs won, BUT (none / 0) (#9)
    by kenosharick on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:07 PM EST
    If she "only" wins by 3-7 pts it is not enough and will be painted everywhere as a loss- it will not be enough to impress supers either.

    I think at this point (5.00 / 1) (#13)
    by Marvin42 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:10:01 PM EST
    Question is near 10 or over 10, not 2-3%...

    Parent
    C-Span saying 8% ahead with 48% reporting (none / 0) (#11)
    by athyrio on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:09:41 PM EST


    Thank you BTD and Jeralyn! (none / 0) (#17)
    by Leisa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:12:05 PM EST
    You are my sanctuary from the toxic news media!

    Can we nominate you for a special award??  What could it be?  Are blogs a recognized form of news/media yet? I am so behind the times...  

    You both get the Patriot and true Democrat Award from me.  I am but a humble American though... I could not begin to reward you with the credit you deserve.  Please accept my appreciation.  

    I will tell everyone I know to visit Talk Left!  You have provided a vital community service to us all.

    My humblest thanks!

    I love this crowd (none / 0) (#29)
    by ruffian on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:22:06 PM EST


    CNN is reporting 66% of the vote in (none / 0) (#30)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:22:20 PM EST
    what regions are still to be counted? Obama or Clinton laning?

    meant "leaning" (none / 0) (#32)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:23:09 PM EST


    I just sent her 50 bucks (none / 0) (#34)
    by Lysis on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:25:17 PM EST
    All I can spare, and she deserves every penny.  

    Trouble with voting (none / 0) (#37)
    by Lora on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:26:05 PM EST
    Hopefully some of these issues didn't affect the vote count.

    Does anyone know whether (none / 0) (#41)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:28:13 PM EST
    Edwards will endorse either before the NC primary?
    Haven't heard anything on this front for a while.
    Elizabeth is making HRC case for her health insurance plan. But I'm not sure whether this would
    help her politically in NC?  
    On the othe rhand I don't remmber either how popular/influential was Edwards before in his own state (say in 2004) ?.

    Edward's Support (none / 0) (#92)
    by mmc9431 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:07:56 PM EST
    I don't think Edwards support would do Hilary much if any good. He wasn't popular in his one term at the Senate. Most felt he only became Senator to put on resume in his run for pres. They criticized him for neglecting his state in his run.(Sounds a bit like the Obama strategy to me!) He also didn't deliver his state for Kerry in 2004.

    Parent
    This is a great speech (none / 0) (#42)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:28:24 PM EST
    It really is.

    Wrong thread (none / 0) (#45)
    by phat on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:33:36 PM EST
    Sorry

    Parent
    But why CNN still has (none / 0) (#46)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:35:19 PM EST
    54-46% if they are counting now counties that
    favor HRC more? Are these not so heavily populated?

    Nope (none / 0) (#49)
    by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:36:57 PM EST
    They don't appear to be. I looked at the PA map on their election site and some of the counties are very small number wise.

    Parent
    I'm not watching the news (none / 0) (#47)
    by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:35:44 PM EST
    What are they saying about the turnout?

    I can see the actual numbers online, but I want to know how they are labeling the turnout. Light? Heavy? Record breaking?

    If 75% reporting (none / 0) (#52)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:37:25 PM EST
    adds up to about 1.5 M oters could it be that only 2M voted in PA?  Thought there were more ?

    75% (none / 0) (#62)
    by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:47:32 PM EST
    Precincts right? So it doesn't really tell how much of the population because the precincts vary in size I think.

    Parent
    I thought there would be more (none / 0) (#53)
    by smott on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:39:35 PM EST
    ...at least 3 mil, and that would help her get a big spread in the pop vote.
    Not happening apparently.

    Not 3 million (none / 0) (#59)
    by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:45:30 PM EST
    There are only 4.2 million registered Dems I think. 3 million would have been a 71% turnout. Eeek. I can't imagine that in a primary. But thats just mho.

    Parent
    Want to know (none / 0) (#60)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:46:11 PM EST
    too what was the turnout ? Normal? Light? Heavy?
    I'm a bit surprised that seems to be about 2M...
    Anyone knows???

    Parent
    Turnout (none / 0) (#65)
    by CoralGables on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:50:01 PM EST
    Turnout is huge. I believe the 2004 primary was 28% and this is closer to 53%

    Parent
    Perspective (none / 0) (#71)
    by Step Beyond on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:54:05 PM EST
    I don't know the PA turnout yet, but here's the earlier closed primary states to put it into perspective.

    Connecticut  51.09%
    Maryland  50.71%
    Arizona    50.47%
    District of Columbia  44.48%
    Florida    42.30%
    Oklahoma  41.20%
    Deleware  37.59%
    New York  35.44%
    New Mexico  28.42%
    Louisiana  25.66%

    Average  40.74%
    Median   41.75%

    4.2 million registered dems in PA so that would be 1.7 million if the are average or 1.75 million for median. 2 million would be approx 47.62% turnout.


    Parent

    Thanks (none / 0) (#78)
    by Andy08 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:17 PM EST
    that Step Beyond !!

    Parent
    she gained 153k so far (none / 0) (#72)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:54:41 PM EST
    with 78%.

    If you include FL and MI (estimate) that makes her almost tied accord to realclearpolitics estimates.  If you just include florida she'd be down by 270

    Parent

    She gave a positive speecha and what do (none / 0) (#54)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:39:43 PM EST
    nbc idiots talk... they are talking Osama bin ladin image in add, Obliterate iran etc.. they are total wimps!

    Editorial in NY Times (none / 0) (#56)
    by MichaelGale on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:41:22 PM EST
    that is what they are quoting

    Parent
    Switch to CNN. It's not worth it. (none / 0) (#57)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:41:53 PM EST


    Parent
    BTD (none / 0) (#55)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:40:12 PM EST
    I'm amazed you still watch NBC.  Thanks for covering it though.

    Chester goes to Hillary.  IMO.   Mont Co going to Hillary won't surprise me.  

    With 76% in... (none / 0) (#61)
    by mike in dc on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:46:37 PM EST
    ...and an 8 point lead for Clinton, the range of possible final margins is probably from 4-12, with 6 to 10 being the likely range.

    As an Obama supporter, a loss is disappointing, but if he keeps it under 10, that's pretty good damage control, and an improvement over Ohio.

    With 79% reporting she is up by 10.. (5.00 / 1) (#83)
    by FlaDemFem on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:59:35 PM EST
    55% to Obama's 45%. HOOOOOOOOOORAAAWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!!!! YEAH..GO BABY GO!! That's not sexist comment, btw..it's a Thoroughbred racing slogan..and she is a thoroughbred for sure!! And I don't say that about many people.

    Parent
    10% now and counting... (none / 0) (#63)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:48:51 PM EST


    They should use decimals (none / 0) (#68)
    by CoralGables on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:52:23 PM EST
    It's really only 9%, they are rounding but climbing it is.

    Parent
    Are the Delegates that each county (none / 0) (#67)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:50:24 PM EST
    awarded proportionally or winner take all?

    Because there are no facts, there is no truth, Just data to be manipulated

    Don Henley-The Garden of Allah

    proportionately - it's the Democratic Party (none / 0) (#74)
    by Prabhata on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:56:19 PM EST
    rule.  We won't know the delegate count for a few days because counties and congressional districts do not have the same boundaries.

    Parent
    HA! (none / 0) (#69)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:52:29 PM EST
    I called 10. Who needs polling when you've got your gut.

    Obama's speech (none / 0) (#70)
    by TalkRight on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:53:33 PM EST
    same old Just words.. boring .. I just changed the channel.. it was just too mush too listen to the SAME OLD.. JUST WORDS speech..

    Delaware county is looking pretty tight. (none / 0) (#75)
    by Radix on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:56:24 PM EST
    less than 1k vote separation.

    Because there are no facts, there is no truth, Just data to be manipulated

    Don Henley-The Garden of Allah

    Here's a thought (none / 0) (#77)
    by lilburro on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:15 PM EST
    just throwing this out there...But a lot of the activism I encountered in Philly suburbs when canvassing for the DNC seemed women driven.  Driven by women involved in education, creative class, or professional pursuits.  Women who like organizing and may've gone for Clinton.

    My guess is also that if people are indeed influenced by yard signs and bumper stickers, women for Hillary led the charge.  It's subtle organizing but it is organizing.  Women are good political allies.  Don't forget this OFB.

    From alternate sources (none / 0) (#79)
    by andgarden on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:57:52 PM EST
    it looks like Chester County is coming in for Obama. He might cut down the margin there a little bit.

    OMG CHESTER REPORTING! (none / 0) (#81)
    by Faust on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:59:16 PM EST
    So far Obama. Looks like he's got a little corridor there. Doubt it will change final result.

    Pat what's-his-name (none / 0) (#82)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 09:59:24 PM EST
    on FauxSnooze said that Hillary could win by 14!  Hannity shut him down, and I really see why.

    Alice and I are through the looking glass when Faux News are my peeps! ;-).  But they weren't looking like funeral goers, so it was easier to watch them.

    Margin still growing (none / 0) (#87)
    by CoralGables on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:02:17 PM EST
    It's now a solid 10% with no rounding necessary. The margin of victory in the popular vote will exceed 200,000.

    Sweet! (none / 0) (#91)
    by mg7505 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:05:21 PM EST
    It's been a long past few weeks, and tonight helps a lot.

    Parent
    MSNBC blaming clinton for voters not wanting obama (none / 0) (#95)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:10:37 PM EST
    I was burned away by the negative (and passive aggressive) Obama actions, tyvm.
    BTD, I wish the NC GOP would stay out of this. (none / 0) (#101)
    by Teresa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:15:27 PM EST
    They will be accused of doing it for Hillary. (Not that I approve either way.)

    Yep (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:31:19 PM EST
    The GOP sucks.  I denounce their ad.  And I haven't even seen it!  If the religious right can do it for movies, I can do it for a GOP ad.

    Parent
    I don't have to turn up the volume (none / 0) (#107)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:20:16 PM EST
    All I have to do is look at the sneer and I know that Olbermann is in full throttle mode.

    Yes, and all the talk on CNN about dividing the party. Yep, votes split right down the middle definitely divide the party.  But who shale we blame?  Those pesky voters?

    I need to go to bed (none / 0) (#110)
    by TeresaInSnow2 on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:22:58 PM EST
    Did I spell a single word correctly?

    Parent
    Something odd happened (none / 0) (#114)
    by nellre on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:26:54 PM EST
    Watching CNN and closely monitoring HRC's lead.
    8 point spread, 75% precincts reporting.
    Suddenly
    10 point lead, 78% precincts reporting.
    Switched back to 8 point lead
    And then settled on the 10%

    Basically, at what point did her lead increase from 8 to 10?

    NYTimes twice interfering deliberately (none / 0) (#118)
    by boredmpa on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:29:25 PM EST
    First they publish a race baiting "op-ed contributor" on the day of the mississippi primary that equates the 3 am ad with the tradition of racist campaigns and the KKK.

    Today they condemn hillary for being responsible for the negative campaigning and ignore the long record of Obama surrogates branding the clintons racist.

    They are going right where their new-found money is--the dailykos/facebook face of the democratic party that spams their blogs and generates ad revenues.  

    Heh (none / 0) (#119)
    by chrisvee on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:30:50 PM EST
    David Gregory laughs as he repeats Hillary's comment  that Obama 'can't buy this race' and likens it to comments about Mitt Romney.  Rachel Maddow looks deflated. Chuck Todd is still full of energy and analyzing away.

    I believe alot of the repubs (none / 0) (#121)
    by americanincanada on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:31:12 PM EST
    respect her scrappiness...I think if they are going to lose they would rather it be to her.

    To CNN's Credit (none / 0) (#128)
    by BDB on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:37:51 PM EST
    They have said upfront that Florida and Michigan are not included in some of their popular vote scenarios and have one that includes Florida.

    Thank you BTD, Jeralyn, TKid (none / 0) (#129)
    by MichaelGale on Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:43:20 PM EST
    I appreciate you all providing the live blog and a supportive place for comments.

    Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Blog Three | 131 comments (131 topical)

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