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Indiana Exits, Thread 2

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:50:45 PM EST
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(BTD) - The Indiana exit polls are up. I'll blog about them here.

Clinton won (45%) Men 51-49, (55%) Women 53-47, Whites (81%) 60-40. Lost African Americans (15%) 8-92. According to this, Clinton won Indiana by 4.

Obama does better in Indiana for one reason, African Americans came out strong. Demography remains political destiny. Let's see what the last numbers say.

< First Polls Close in Indiana: Early Returns | CNN : Obama Wins North Carolina >

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    Indiana Exits, Thread 2 | 39 comments (39 topical)

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    OK.. (5.00 / 1) (#37)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:20:00 PM EST
    Another election tale to keep you guys entertained.

    So....Obama hits a diner, right?  3 guys tell him.....hey, want our vote?  Buy our breakfast.

    He grabs the ticket.  The guys laugh and protest, telling him they are kidding.  

    Nope, by gosh....he'll buy their breakfast.  Comes to about 25 bucks.

    Will the guy actually vote for Obama?

    Turns out, he's from Canada.  :)

    Of course, given the way this works (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:52:23 PM EST
    they won't be right until we already know the result anyway.

    We're seeing the usual rural break for Hillary now. Indianapolis reports bupkis so far.

    Hey maybe no one voted in Indianapolis! ;) N/T (none / 0) (#2)
    by Marvin42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:53:09 PM EST


    Parent
    And that would be all Hillary's fault. (5.00 / 4) (#5)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:56:55 PM EST


    Parent
    heh (none / 0) (#3)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:54:05 PM EST


    Parent
    Exits say 52% for Hillary (none / 0) (#11)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:03:06 PM EST
    but she wins men and women. Let's see if this changes.

    Parent
    White Dems give her 65% in IN (none / 0) (#15)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:05:14 PM EST


    Parent
    Those who voted on electability (none / 0) (#17)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:06:27 PM EST
    chose Hillary 63/37.

    Parent
    Uut wanted Obama as CIC. Why? (none / 0) (#21)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:08:10 PM EST


    Parent
    Donna, what can anyone say? (none / 0) (#4)
    by Stellaaa on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:55:06 PM EST
    "we gave rewards for waiting , we did not just take away"

    CNN website has a Blitzer (none / 0) (#7)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:58:22 PM EST
    piece up about having MI and FL primaries on pre-existing election days this summer.

    Parent
    Primaries? *gasp* Not holding (none / 0) (#8)
    by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:58:57 PM EST
    caucuses is just SO unfair to Obama.

    Parent
    Blitzer (none / 0) (#9)
    by Kathy on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:59:23 PM EST
    is really pushing that August primary thing.  I just heard that Gingrich put it forward first.  

    Hey, I'm on board with that.  Let's do it.

    Parent

    Maybe I'm crazy... (none / 0) (#12)
    by reynwrap582 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:03:12 PM EST
    But doesn't John King's map usually have MI and FL flagged in yellow or green or something to signify they don't count?  Because I just noticed that his map is actually showing the MI and FL results now.  Was it always like this and I didn't notice?

    Parent
    I think you're right. nt (none / 0) (#13)
    by ahazydelirium on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:04:42 PM EST


    Parent
    Donna is the best thing since sliced bread (none / 0) (#20)
    by Florida Resident on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:08:07 PM EST
    for the Republicans

    Parent
    I'm about to call my sister in IN. I think (none / 0) (#6)
    by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 05:57:45 PM EST
    she may be OFB...

    Interesting. She said that Hillary's mailers (none / 0) (#40)
    by MarkL on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:33:57 PM EST
    were very negative (on Obama)---more so than Obama's.

    Parent
    I can't wait for my town (none / 0) (#10)
    by lilburro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:02:34 PM EST
    to be graced by John King's presence on his crazy map.  Looks like Hillary's set to win Indiana.

    BTW, who has the best exit polls?  I mostly read CNN's because of their depth and relatively easy access.

    Rove sez (none / 0) (#14)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:04:45 PM EST
    IN exit polls are looking a lot like Ohio's.

    BTD, I'm slow on stats. How do you come (none / 0) (#16)
    by oculus on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:06:11 PM EST
    up w/Hillary by 5?

    By rounding up (none / 0) (#23)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:08:15 PM EST


    Parent
    exits are always inaccurate (none / 0) (#29)
    by bigbay on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:12:50 PM EST


    Parent
    Dang, that won't do (none / 0) (#18)
    by AnninCA on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:07:11 PM EST
    I predicted 10.

    I want the prize.  :)

    Give it time (5.00 / 3) (#24)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:08:31 PM EST
    The early exits have tended to under-estimate Hillary's lead.

    Parent
    I think this kind of margin (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by Marvin42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:10:01 PM EST
    was what was calculated from early returns in PA too, even a little smaller. I guess we'll see.

    Parent
    It looks exactly like PA did at first (none / 0) (#28)
    by andgarden on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:10:44 PM EST
    though we're showing a slightly higher percentage of AAs.

    Parent
    92% AA (none / 0) (#19)
    by ineedalife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:07:47 PM EST
    This is getting really fugly.

    That's not really... (none / 0) (#31)
    by OrangeFur on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:13:06 PM EST
    ... much different than previous states, no?

    Parent
    Question: how will these shift as results come in? (none / 0) (#22)
    by Marvin42 on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:08:10 PM EST
    In PA they shifted quite a bit, not sure if we'll see the same. But if this holds I guess NC is gonna be a big win for Obama. Drat.

    Obama gets more of the Catholic vote (none / 0) (#25)
    by lilburro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:09:15 PM EST
    than he did in PA.  Here he loses it 59-41, instead of 70-30.

    BTD (none / 0) (#26)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:09:38 PM EST
    what do you say now? Obama still can't get to 45% with white voters. It's the same story no matter what state you go to.

    Incorrect. (none / 0) (#38)
    by Faust on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:30:48 PM EST


    Parent
    Don't trust AA exit poll data (none / 0) (#32)
    by zebedee on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:14:01 PM EST
    First, exit polls are ususall less than 2000 people so AA sample is very small. In Indiana, that's 200-250 AAs and the precision for HRC's AA voters (around 20) has a ridiculously high margin of error. Not quite so bad in NC but still a very high MOE.

    Also some AAs are reluctant to admit voting against Obama

    Fort Wayne's Starting To Come In (none / 0) (#33)
    by BDB on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:14:21 PM EST
    Should favor Obama and so far it does - 56-44 with almost a third reporting.

    Brit Hume says (none / 0) (#34)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:14:31 PM EST
    IN exit polls show Clinton 52 - Obama 48, but cautions that Obama tends to do better in exit polls than in the actual election.

    Why is that anyway? n/t (none / 0) (#35)
    by lilburro on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:15:34 PM EST


    Parent
    Obama is the trendy candidate (none / 0) (#36)
    by stillife on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:17:14 PM EST


    Parent
    sheesh....NBC calling it for Obama (none / 0) (#39)
    by thereyougo on Tue May 06, 2008 at 06:33:42 PM EST
    less than half hour? already? have they counted all the votes?

    why don't we have any numbers?

    Indiana Exits, Thread 2 | 39 comments (39 topical)

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