Tag: iowa 2016
Posted on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:32:51 PM EST
Tags: Iowa 2016 (all tags)
Update: I'm done for the night. Congratulations, Hillary. These numbers are from the Iowa Democratic Party's caucus site. 1632 of 1683 precincts reporting. (Results include Tele-Caucus and the Satellite Caucus.)
Here's the County map showing winners at midnight, Iowa time. Looks to me like Hillary won a lot more counties.
At 538: David Wasserman writes at 10:52 PM:
Reality check: A tie in Iowa is actually a win for Clinton. According to our targets at the Cook Political Report, Bernie Sanders would have needed to win twice as many delegates as Clinton in Iowa to be "on track" for the nomination. He's nowhere near that tonight.
Update: Hillary is at 49.9%.
Update: Bernie changes his mind again. Now Bernie's flying off to New Hampshire after all tonight. He's not going to demand an actual vote total, but claim a "moral victory." Translation: He didn't win. Spin: It's a tie. Reality: A tie is if they each get 49.75%. If either gets more, he or she wins Iowa. (With O'Malley getting .5%, that leaves 99.5%.) [More...]
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Posted on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:37:00 AM EST
Tags: iowa 2016, Hillary Clinton (all tags)
Hillary Clinton has a three point lead in the final Selzer poll -- also called the Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll -- before today's Iowa caucuses. Here are the poll questions and the methodology.
Nate Silver at 538 says Hillary may just win Iowa. He opines Bernie Sanders is close, but has failed to grab the momentum. (Feel free to disagree with him, but skip the name-calling and personal attacks or your comment will be deleted. They aren't welcome here as to anyone.)
538 also favorably dissects the historical accuracy of Selzer's Iowa poll (there's a reason it's called the best of the Iowa polls, but still, it's not perfect.) [More...]
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